In -depth research report in the catering industry: What kind of business is the new tea drink?

The three major soft drinks are caffeine beverages. The form of cola consumption is relatively single. In store drinks, tea drinks and coffee are replaced. The core of the competition between the two is still product power. Coffee and tea are high and low in different categories.
The tea drinks and coffee can meet people’s physiological needs and certain social space needs of caffeine. The differences between business models and marketing methods are not enough to become a competitive barrier for the two. It happened. For consumers in the mainland market, the drinking habits of tea are more ingrained, the crowd is wider, the native market is larger, and the product innovation is higher. The social attributes that are attached to the taste, innovation speed are the core factors that determine the needs of these two optional consumer categories. The two beverage shops of milk tea and coffee also penetrate each other in the category.
As we have always emphasized, the current drinking drink is a low -threshold, high iterative industry, and the core of competition will eventually fall at the level of product power and the brand strength of the product, the innovation and marketing method of business models, and the marketing method of business models. The change can quickly spawn new brands in the short term, but in the long run, consumers are still pursuing good products.
The main factor in the coffee industry’s replacement, summarizing the main factors to promote the transition of the industry is product power, the supply side innovation, and to meet the consumer goals of demand differentiation layers.
This consumption through coffee consumption per capita disposable income, converting consumer cups for specific consumption willingness, and unchanged coffee alternative to tea with total caffeine consumption. Coffee is expected to reach 150-500 billion yuan, and with the rapid expansion of coffee stores, consumption habits will accelerate.
we calculated that the proportion of coffee expenditure in the mainland’s per capita coffee expenditure reached the market size of the industry market in Hong Kong, Taiwan, the United States and Japan.
The calculation logic is:
1. Calculate the per capita consumption amount through the amount of per capita consumption of various places and the average price of a single cup;
. The proportion of expenditure = per capita consumption amount/per capita disposable income;
3. Assuming that the mainland region will also reach the proportion of expenditure in various places in the future, and coefficients are converted to various cities:
. The per capita disposable income and expenditure proportion of cities in various tier cities are calculated. Per capita consumption amount;
5. By assuming that the price of single cups in each tier cities, calculate the number of per capita consumption cups;
6. Calculate the number of cities and per capita consumption amounts in various tier cities in Hong Kong. The proportion of coffee expenditures in Taiwan, the United States and Japan accounted for 1.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9%, respectively. We believe that the development of these four markets can well interpret the different stages of the mainland market in the future.
It’s habits and cultural traditions, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan are similar to the mainland regions.
But in the last 20 years, the living habits of consumers in the three markets have evolved in different directions. There is a desktop milk tea represented by pearl milk tea in Taiwan, which has rejuvenated tea. Therefore, the development of consumer coffee drinking habits in Taiwan is relatively lagging.
A Hong Kong -style milk tea has already appeared in Hong Kong, but with the improvement of globalization and the gradually aging of the original Hong Kong -style milk tea category, coffee drinking habits have gradually developed. As the country with the highest degree of Westernization in Asia, there is no new product form to give the tea market for new vitality. Therefore, coffee consumption habits are close to coffee markets such as the United States as the mainstream market.
In the mainstream product of the existing grinding coffee consumer market Starbucks latte, and based on the difference in the price level of Starbucks and the psychological expected pricing of consumer, set up a 0.5 converting coefficient (that is, half of Starbucks pricing as the average price of coffee in the region as the average price of coffee price in the area. ), Convert the price of a single cup in the benchmark area to a reasonable value.
The first- and second -tier cities are high level of disposable income.
This, we calculated the per capita disposable income (including all residents in urban and rural areas) in various cities in various tier cities based on Wind.
According to estimates, the per capita disposable income of the first -tier city (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) and second -tier cities reached 60,640 yuan/year and 37663 yuan/year, which is much higher than the national average of 28,228 yuan/year.
It first and second -tier cities are suitable for the development of existing beverage and have demonstration effects. Therefore, most of the current beverage brands
It started from first and second -tier cities. The current beverage brands, such as Starbucks, Ruixing, Lian Coffee, Hi Tea, Naixue’s tea, Lele Tea, etc., all of which have contributed from first- and second -tier cities.
On the one hand, considering consumers have enough purchasing power and fast life rhythm, the demand for current tea drinks is stronger. The migration curve of low -level cities, that is, the time machine theory proposed by Sun Zhengyi, the popular fashion and living habits of big cities will gradually transmit to the low -line with the income level of low -line cities.
The development process of rejuvenating the tea, in 2017, Heytea Mix (Hi Tea Hot Wheat), Heytea Black (Hi Tea Black Gold Store), Heytea Pink (Xizhu Pink Store), Heytea Day Dreamer Project (Xicha DP Store) and other store forms. Basically, the provincial capital cities have established a brand image as the flagship store. In June 2018, the Line area is smaller, more flexible and more digital.
It, with Starbucks in the early 1990s, in terms of urban expansion and development paths in the United States, it is also first expanded to small cities from large cities such as San Diego, Boston, New York, Houston, instead of gradually filling in the new area after entering the new area. Regional method.
The core drinking model is that the core of this development model lies in the high demands of current beverages on the establishment of brand influence, not deeply digging supply chain efficiency and human coordination to improve operating efficiency.
The considering the existence of time machine effects in various cities and slightly different life rhythms, we have adopted different convert coefficient assumptions on cities in various tier cities.
The per capita expenditure proportion of the per capita expenditure in Hong Kong as an example. We assume that the per capita coffee expenditure ratio of the first, second, third lines, fourth lines, and below can reach 80%, 70%, 70%, and 70%of the coffee expenditure ratio in Hong Kong, respectively. 60%and 50%, the average annual coffee expenditure of cities in various tier cities is 522 yuan, 283.5 yuan, 199 yuan, and 82 yuan.
If, according to the population and per capita consumption amount of cities in each tier cities, we calculated the market size of the potential coffee industry in various cities. 80%, 70%, 60%, and 50%of the benchmarking areas.
The is the most closest to Taiwan in Taiwan. We believe that the market size of the coffee industry in mainland China can reach about 140 billion yuan, and there is still 1-2 times space.
The non -alcoholic beverage market in China can be divided into tea, coffee and other beverages.
In calculated by retail consumption value, the Chinese non -alcoholic beverage market increased from 900.7 billion yuan in 2015 to 1201.6 billion yuan in 2019.
This -in -laws increased and continued to be promoted by product continuous innovation. The Chinese non -alcoholic beverage market is expected to increase from 1134 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.856.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.4%
The store store Coffee space is wide and leading (Starbucks), and China has stronger tea drinking habits. The tea market is far greater than coffee. In the context of the rise of the new Chinese tea brand, the gap continues to increase.
The tea includes tea and other tea products such as tea and tea, tea, tea powder and tea drinking.
Ben according to Nai Xue’s tea promotional book, according to the value of retail consumption as of 2020, tea accounts for more than 35%of the Chinese non -alcoholic beverage market. The total scale of the Chinese tea market has increased from 256.9 billion yuan in 2015 to 2020 in 2020 410.7 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate of 9.8%; of which, the stores now made 113.6 billion tea, and the compound growth rate in the next five years reached 24.5%.
. According to the value of retail consumption, the Chinese coffee market reached 65.5 billion yuan in 2020, accounting for about 5.8%of the total number of non -alcoholic beverage markets in the same period. Coffee contribution. In 2022, Starbucks is expected to reach 5,000 stores in China.
The tea is a traditional drink in Chinese culture. In the 1980s, pearl milk tea was born in Taiwan. Black tea and milk are mixed into milk tea and added to the famous Taiwanese snack powder. rn 2015年左右，新式茶饮诞生，随着口味的多样化，更多配料的引入，奶茶的整体品质得到提升，新式茶饮是指采用优质茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜水果等天然、 High -quality ingredients, through a more diverse Chinese drinks combined with the combination of ingredients and ingredients, new tea drinks stimulate the rapid growth of the Chinese tea market.
As of 2020, about 60%of the total consumption of the current tea market in China comes from the current tea shop. (i) High -end current tea shop (ASP is not less than 20 yuan, such as Xixue, Naixue, Lele Tea)
(ii) mid -end current tea shop (ASP is from 10 yuan to 20 Yuan, such as tea face, COCO, a little bit, ancient, happy lemon)
(III) Low -end existing tea shop (ASP is less than 10 yuan, such as honey snow ice city). The total consumption value generated by the current tea -making products in China ’s high -end tea drink shop increased from 800 million yuan in 2015 to 12.9 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 75.8%.
The annual growth rate of 32.2%is expected to further expand to 52.2 billion yuan in 2025.
from 2020 to 2025, according to the consumption value of the current tea drink, the growth rate of high -end existing tea shops is expected to continue to exceed the average growth rate of other current tea shops, which will account for 2025 current system. There are about 24.8%of the total value of tea drinking in tea shops.
As of September 30, 2020, there are about 340,000 current tea shops in China, and the average price of tea drinks is 13 yuan, of which about 3.2,000 high -end current tea shops (accounting for the proportion of proportion (proportion of proportion 9.4%), the average price of its current tea drink is not less than 20 yuan, of which 2.4,000 tea shops are chain brands (defined as brands with more than 1 store in the country). In concentration, as of September 30, 2020, according to the value of retail consumption, the five major market participants accounted for more than 50%of the market share, Xixi tea accounted for about 25.5%, and Naixue accounted for approximately 17.7%.
In the disclosure of Naixue’s prospectus, as of September 30, 2020, Naixue covered the most widely in high -end tea drinks in China, with the highest ASP, which reached 43.3 yuan per order, and the average number of votes in the industry was 35 Yuan.
In the current tea drink, the high -end is the base tea fresh fruits represented by Xixi and Naixue.
The like tea, because of the high cost of raw material, Nai Xue has high pricing, paying the cost of “reducing gross profit margin and increasing management difficulty”, and the product is relatively high.
It-ending is a relatively high degree of standardized tabletop milk tea. It is mainly COCO and a little bit. More tea bags, milk powder, less fresh fruits, and pricing are 8-15 yuan. It has entered the stage of franchise expansion. Selection of large base groups.
The low -end is brewed milk tea mainly distributed in the sinking market. It is mainly honey snow ice cities, joining the expansion, and the scale of opening a store is large. There are tens of thousands of houses in the sinking market.
But because it is doing business in the sinking market, the market requires low pricing, so it is decentralized in the form of franchise.
The target consumers decide that the tea brand such as Mixue Bingcheng is weak. It is a convenient demand for drinking. The product is difficult to differentiate.
It in other words, Mi Xue Bingcheng competes with other low -end brands in the form of franchise.
Colishable “2020 New Tea Drink Research Report” jointly released by the China Chain Operation Association and the Ali New Service Research Center, from the perspective of product development, it can be divided into three stages,
chain tea tea During the drinking period (before 2015): The current tea -made tea develops rapidly, and many national chain brands are born, including happy lemon, COCO, a little bit, etc.;
): Typical features are ingredients such as fresh fruits, dairy products, and roasted grass in drinks to attach importance to the value of drinks, good -looking and delicious, new tea concepts were born, including Xixue’s tea and other brands; at the same time, more diverse diverse diverse Consumption scenarios appear (Naixueyaki, Naixuemeng Factory, Xixuemeng Factory, Xixue LAB shop, Xixi Tea Hot Mai Store, Lele Tea Tea Factory), extending consumption time.
This tea drink consumption upgrade 2.0 period (starting from 2020): The tea drink segment market further develops, the head tea brand layout in the second and third tier cities; Products), channel digitalization (small programs are more convenient, online retail platforms), in addition to high -end tea brands Xixi tea and Naixue further expand scale, including 7 points sweet, tea face, Sevenbus and other brands Gradually standardized and replicated in different places.
“2020 New Tea White Paper” released by Naixue’s tea combined with CBNDATA, the size of the new tea consumer in 2020, the size of the new tea drink is 300 million people, and more than 80 % of the new tea consumers buy at least once a week, 80 % of the 80 %, 80 % Consumer brand loyalty is higher. From the perspective of consumer groups, the post -90s and post -00s occupy nearly 70 % of the market, and male consumers have increased. More than 40 % of the new tea consumers were men in 2020.
The service scope of the store to 2-5 kilometers in the inner region, in all terminals (ie, third-party platforms, WeChat and Alipay applets, and self-operated applications) retail sales sold through takeaway sales The consumption value increased from 700 million yuan in 2015 to 28.4 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 107.6%, accounting for about 25.0%of China’s total retail consumption value of tea products in 2020; The compound annual growth rate further expanded to 112.9 billion yuan in 2025.
This in the tea drink industry has low entry thresholds and fierce competition. Under the influence of the epidemic in 2020, head brands have accelerated store opening, and the market concentration has further increased. From 2020 to the final date of the offerings, Naixue opened 189 stores.
In the company’s public data, as of December 2020, the number of newly opened stores in Naixue increased by 20%over the same period last year.
This brand optimization services and products, digitalization and new retail, have increased the degree of digitalization of online since 2020. Digitalization is reflected in the establishment of a digital team, digital information -driven products innovation optimization and relying on big data location improvement efficiency.
The new tea drink will use digital tools to get customer feedback in a short period of time, optimize and adjust the product, or launch new seasonal products.
Puctual operations can improve user stickiness and repurchase rate. Tea companies gather user data and opinions through premium orders, points gifts, exclusive price evaluation channels, and optimize user experience. At the same time, setting custom -made flavors through its own mini -programs or APPs, refining and precipitating user data.
Ne Xue’s tea launched the membership system in September 2019. As of the last feasible date, the number of registered members was 29.2 million. As of September 30, 2020, about 49.4%of Naixue’s orders came from members, and the total number of active members increased from 2 million people in Q4 2019 to 5.8 million in Q4 in Q4 2020 to Q4 and 29.8%in 2020 It is a repurchase member (25.6%in the same period in 2019).
The brand power is reflected in retail products, and peripheral products are reflected. In February 2020, Naixue’s tea Tmall flagship store was launched. In March 2020, Xixi Tea Tmall flagship store was launched, and in July 2020, Xizhai Jingdong Ziying Flagship Store was launched.
The new tea brand is launched with retail products, snacks, bubbles, and tea retail gift boxes to broaden consumer scenarios.
The consumption scenario of coffee is partial working days. The new tea itself is social and leisure (more open in the Shopping Mall, and the passenger flow on weekends and holidays is better, and Starbucks is mainly CBD in my country. The peak consumption period of the day is from 2 pm to 4 pm. The peak peak time of the week is weekend/Thursday/Friday. To roasting, coffee (hi tea provides American and latte), packaging water and snacks, and even wine, expand consumer time and scenes, increase work scenarios, penetrate from afternoon tea to breakfast and overtime supper.
The retail consumption value of cross -selling goods in high -end tea shops in China is expected to increase from approximately RMB 2.2 billion in 2020 to RMB 10.1 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.4%.
The new store in Naixue Store will become a PRO store, remove the existing baking, and change to the central kitchen/supplier to uniformly distribute baking products, make small shops, focus on tea drinks, and position high -passenger flow areas, such as high -end shopping centers, such as high -end shopping centers. In the core location of office buildings and residential areas, fusion coffee/roasting/tea/retail, intelligent equipment layout improves operating efficiency;
. From the perspective of the unit price of tickets, Naixue is significantly higher than the first line in the second and below cities ( 48 yuan vs.43 yuan), calculated based on 73%income, calculated at 27 yuan a cup, and the second and below cities have 1.7-1.8 cups of tea per order, which is significantly higher than first-tier cities. , Wider storefront and mild and bright light, Naixue’s type of store types in front/new first -line encryption may be differentiated from the second line. It focuses on different store types. It provides fast and easy -to -pick tea shops for busy work groups to leisure for leisure. A “third space” with a longer -length and lower rental areas provides partial socially.
The star product effect is obvious. As of September 30, 2020, Naixue’s three best -selling tea drinks are domineering cheese strawberries, domineering oranges and domineering cheese grapes.
The total contribution to the current tea -making sales of 25.3%. The annual sales champion of Huancha is polysmis grapes. The hi bottle continues the brand potential energy of Xisha. It is mainly based on the bottle of sugar -free bubble water. The most popular taste is grape flavor.
The head -made tea brand to strengthen the emotional link with consumers through cultural output to convey the brand culture. Nai Xue invited different artists to present art works on the tea cup through the CUP Art Museum, and passed on “full of life art. The concept of Naixue “”, and passed the concept of making good self -ownership through public welfare activities and joint names in 2020.
The head brand attaches great importance to brand maintenance. Huancha was originally called Huangcha. Due to more and more imitation stores, the founders officially renamed “Royaltea Emperor Tea” in 2016 Letter, explain the brand story, and continue to carry out counterfeiting rights.
The head brand is the industry output standard. Before 2019, the tea industry did not have a unified industry standard. On November 19, 2020, the China Chain Management Association joined hands to hand in hand. New -style tea head brands such as Naixue and Xixi Tea officially set up a new CCFA tea committee to jointly establish a new tea drink industry standard.
The current drinks require good products good models. 高上新频率，口味稳定需要标准化制作流程和员工培训，麦当劳每个麦咖啡负责人员都要集中学习考核；上新频率，需要研发投入，星巴克上新频率1.5周，奈雪每周上新，喜The average tea is 1.2 weeks new.
Good models -have brand power to negotiate rents, low human dependence, financial resources to build baking plants, or scale to stabilize upstream ordering.
head brand utilization It has its own scale advantage, promote the standardization and scale development of the supply chain, and at the same time deeply cultivate and control the upstream of the supply chain to ensure high -quality raw materials supply, thereby ensuring the stability and unity of the taste of the product. At the beginning of the year, the varieties of strawberry are developed. On the one hand, cultivate and develop new strawberry varieties, and on the other hand, choose the most suitable area and build their own strawberry base. At the same time High -quality tea, finally classic tea such as Green Yan, Jinfeng, Four Seasons Spring. It also built an organic tea garden in Guizhou to produce organic tea.
Ne Xue involved in the supply chain from the beginning, self -built tea gardens, orchards, gardens, gardens, gardens, gardens, gardens, gardens, gardens With the central factory, raw material assets, develop the supply chain system by yourself, realize the digitalization of suppliers to the production of the entire process, automatically match the best ingredients for stores, and realize the integration of stores and warehouse inventory. Single shop model and tea drink single shop model comparison
The tea drink business is good:
1. Store small weekly turn fast, low trial and error cost, high ping -digitized manpower saving more) .
. The gross profit is not lower than the catering, and the supply chain is simpler (especially the large scale makes the supplier increase). The most difficult is the fruit. n 3. Weaken chefs, get started faster after systematic training, better standardized in the store, and tea with custom cheese machines and tea cooking machines; currently tea, sugar, cheese, and fruit cutting links are gradually replaced by machine/suppliers. .
. The consumption scenario is more diverse. A big pain point and consumption of food companies are mainly concentrated in lunch and evening markets, but tea can be eliminated The expenses extend to breakfast, afternoon tea, and even supper to further improve the efficiency.
5. Fashionable and minority, strong attractiveness to young people, recruit better employees and attract younger customers;
. Strong compatibility ( baking, retail, retail, retail, retail They are all good formats)
(2) The manifestation of the brand’s tension and sinking space
According to the influence of the Naixue prospectus, the daily sales of second-tier cities exceeded the first line and the new In first -tier cities, the optional consumption power of second -tier cities for petty -funded fashionable attributes is not inferior to first -tier cities. Under the influence of the epidemic in 2020, first -tier cities show stronger toughness.
Asders to Q3 in 2020, the average daily sales of first -tier cities/first -tier cities/second -tier cities/other cities decreased by 0.63 million/10.09 million/1.94 million respectively compared with the same period last year.
The growth of new tea shops in first -tier and second -tier cities slowed down, showing a trend of sinking towards third -tier and fourth -tier cities.
In the “2020 New Tea White Paper”, the new tea brand in the national first and second -tier cities in the country’s 50,000 square meters of shopping malls accounted for 25%of the casual catering format, and the number of stores accounted for 31%. The penetration rate of new tea drinks has risen, and the brand begins to try to open stores in CBD or community.
The growth in the growth of new tea shop stores in first -tier and second -tier cities has slowed down, the proportion has decreased significantly, showing a trend of sinking towards third -tier and fourth -tier cities; consumers in first -tier and second -tier cities are the main consumer army of online new retail products. Consumers account for more than 60 %.
If food safety risks, the epidemic has repeatedly brought out meals, brand aging, and new stores cannot sink as expected.

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Arvison: Huachuang Securities Wang Weina
In the latest industry research report from: [Yuanzhan Think Tank Official Website]